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Predicting the progression of mild cognitive Paris, F-75013, France; Institut du Cerveau et de la Moelle
impairment using machine learning: A systematic, épinière, ICM, Paris, F-75013, France; Inserm, U 1127, Paris,
quantitative and critical review (2021) F-75013, France; CNRS, UMR 7225, Paris, F-75013, France;
Sorbonne Université, Paris, F-75013, France
Ansart, Manon; Epelbaum, Stéphane; Bassignana,
Giulia; Bône, Alexandre; Bottani, Simona; Cattai, Tiziana; ABSTRACT We performed a systematic review of stud-
Couronné, Raphaël; Faouzi, Johann; Koval, Igor; Louis, ies focusing on the automatic prediction of the pro-
Maxime; Thibeau-Sutre, Elina; Wen, Junhao; Wild, gression of mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's
Adam; Burgos, Ninon; Dormont, Didier; Colliot, Olivier; disease (AD) dementia, and a quantitative analysis of
Durrleman, Stanley the methodological choices impacting performance.
This review included 172 articles, from which 234
Institut du Cerveau et de la Moelle épinière, ICM, Paris, experiments were extracted. For each of them, we
F-75013, France; Inserm, U 1127, Paris, F-75013, France; CNRS, reported the used data set, the feature types, the
UMR 7225, Paris, F-75013, France; Sorbonne Université, Paris, algorithm type, performance and potential method-
F-75013, France; Inria, Aramis project-team, Paris, F-75013, ological issues. The impact of these characteristics on
France. Electronic address: [email protected]; Institut du the performance was evaluated using a multivariate
Cerveau et de la Moelle épinière, ICM, Paris, F-75013, France; mixed effect linear regressions. We found that us-
Inserm, U 1127, Paris, F-75013, France; CNRS, UMR 7225, Paris, ing cognitive, fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission
F-75013, France; Sorbonne Université, Paris, F-75013, France; tomography or potentially electroencephalography
Inria, Aramis project-team, Paris, F-75013, France; Institute of and magnetoencephalography variables significantly
Memory and Alzheimer's Disease (IM2A), Centre of excellence improved predictive performance compared to not
of neurodegenerative disease (CoEN), National Reference including them, whereas including other modalities,
Center for Rare or Early Dementias, Department of Neurology, in particular T1 magnetic resonance imaging, did not
Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, AP-HP, Boulevard de l'hôpital, Paris, show a significant effect. The good performance of
F-75013, France; Institut du Cerveau et de la Moelle épinière, cognitive assessments questions the wide use of imag-
ICM, Paris, F-75013, France; Inserm, U 1127, Paris, F-75013, ing for predicting the progression to AD and advocates
France; CNRS, UMR 7225, Paris, F-75013, France; Sorbonne for exploring further fine domain-specific cognitive
Université, Paris, F-75013, France; Inria, Aramis project-team, assessments. We also identified several methodological
Paris, F-75013, France; Dept. of Information Engineering, issues, including the absence of a test set, or its use for
Electronics and Telecommunication, Sapienza University feature selection or parameter tuning in nearly a fourth
of Rome, Italy; Institut du Cerveau et de la Moelle épinière, of the papers. Other issues, found in 15% of the studies,
ICM, Paris, F-75013, France; Inserm, U 1127, Paris, F-75013, cast doubts on the relevance of the method to clinical
France; CNRS, UMR 7225, Paris, F-75013, France; Sorbonne practice. We also highlight that short-term predictions
Université, Paris, F-75013, France; Inria, Aramis project-team, are likely not to be better than predicting that sub-
Paris, F-75013, France; AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital, jects stay stable over time. These issues highlight the
Department of Neuroradiology, Paris, France; Institut du importance of adhering to good practices for the use of
Cerveau et de la Moelle épinière, ICM, Paris, F-75013, France; machine learning as a decision support system for the
Inserm, U 1127, Paris, F-75013, France; CNRS, UMR 7225, Paris, clinical practice.
F-75013, France; Sorbonne Université, Paris, F-75013, France;
Inria, Aramis project-team, Paris, F-75013, France; Institute of Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, Automatic prediction,
Memory and Alzheimer's Disease (IM2A), Centre of excellence Cognition, Mild cognitive impairment, Progression, Quan-
of neurodegenerative disease (CoEN), National Reference titative review
Center for Rare or Early Dementias, Department of Neurology,
Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, AP-HP, Boulevard de l'hôpital, Paris, Medical image analysis (2021), Vol. 67 (33091740) (20
F-75013, France; AP-HP, Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital, Department citations)
of Neuroradiology, Paris, France; Inria, Aramis project-team,
ontents Index 79
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